JULES-crop: a parametrisation of crops in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator

Studies of climate change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere have been completed without recognition of the integrated nature of the biosphere. Improved assessment of the impacts of climate change on food and water security requires the development and use of models not only representing each component but also their interactions. To meet this requirement the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model has been modified to include a generic parametrisation of annual crops. The new model, JULES-crop, is described and evaluation at global and site levels for the four globally important crops; wheat, soybean, maize and rice. JULES-crop demonstrates skill in simulating the inter-annual variations of yield for maize and soybean at the global and country levels, and for wheat for major spring wheat producing countries. The impact of the new parametrisation, compared to the standard configuration, on the simulation of surface heat fluxes is largely an alteration of the partitioning between latent and sensible heat fluxes during the later part of the growing season. Further evaluation at the site level shows the model captures the seasonality of leaf area index, gross primary production and canopy height better than in the standard JULES. However, this does not lead to an improvement in the simulation of sensible and latent heat fluxes. The performance of JULES-crop from both an Earth system and crop yield model perspective is encouraging. However, more effort is needed to develop the parametrisation of the model for specific applications. Key future model developments identified include the introduction of processes such as irrigation and nitrogen limitation which will enable better representation of the spatial variability in yield

Extragalactic neutrino background from very young pulsars surrounded by supernova envelopes

We estimate the extragalactic muon neutrino background which is produced by hadrons injected by very young pulsars at an early phase after supernova explosion. It is assumed that hadrons are accelerated in the pulsar wind zone which is filled with thermal photons captured below the expanding supernova envelope. In collisions with those thermal photons hadrons produce pions which decay into muon neutrinos. At a later time, muon neutrinos are also produced by the hadrons in collisions with matter of the expanding envelope. We show that extragalactic neutrino background predicted by such a model should be detectable by the planned 1 km$^2$ neutrino detector if a significant part of pulsars is born with periods shorter than $\sim 10$ ms. Since such population of pulsars is postulated by the recent models of production of extremely high energy cosmic rays, detection of neutrinos with predicted fluxes can be used as their observational test.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, A&A style, accepted to A&A Let

Active Amplification of the Terrestrial Albedo to Mitigate Climate Change: An Exploratory Study

This study explores the potential to enhance the reflectance of solar insolation by the human settlement and grassland components of the Earth's terrestrial surface as a climate change mitigation measure. Preliminary estimates derived using a static radiative transfer model indicate that such efforts could amplify the planetary albedo enough to offset the current global annual average level of radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases by as much as 30 percent or 0.76 W/m2. Terrestrial albedo amplification may thus extend, by about 25 years, the time available to advance the development and use of low-emission energy conversion technologies which ultimately remain essential to mitigate long-term climate change. However, additional study is needed to confirm the estimates reported here and to assess the economic and environmental impacts of active land-surface albedo amplification as a climate change mitigation measure.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figures. In press with Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, N

Transcriptional and biochemical analyses of gibberellin expression and content in germinated barley grain

Mobilization of reserves in germinated cereal grains is critical for early seedling vigour, global crop productivity and hence food security. Gibberellins (GAs) are central to this process. We have developed a spatio-temporal model that describes the multifaceted mechanisms of GA regulation in germinated barley grain. The model was generated using RNA-seq transcript data from tissues dissected from intact, germinated grain, which closely match measurements of GA hormones and their metabolites in those tissues. The data show that successful grain germination is underpinned by high concentrations of GA precursors in ungerminated grain, the use of independent metabolic pathways for the synthesis of several bioactive GAs during germination, and a capacity to abort bioactive GA biosynthesis. The most abundant bioactive form is GA₁, which is synthesized in the scutellum as a glycosyl conjugate that diffuses to the aleurone, where it stimulates de novo synthesis of a GA₃ conjugate and GA₄. Synthesis of bioactive GAs in the aleurone provides a mechanism that ensures the hormonal signal is relayed from the scutellum to the distal tip of the grain. The transcript dataset of 33,421 genes used to define GA metabolism is available as a resource to analyse other physiological processes in germinated grain.Natalie S. Betts, Christoph Dockter, Oliver Berkowitz, Helen M. Collins, Michelle Hooi, Qiongxian Lu, Rachel A. Burton, Vincent Bulone, Birgitte Skadhauge, James Whelan, and Geoffrey B. Finche

Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850) but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarise attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.Comment: The final, definitive version of this paper has been published in Progress in Physical Geography, 31(5), 2007 by SAGE Publications Ltd, All rights reserved. \c{opyright} 2007 Edwards, Crucifix and Harriso

Technical summary

Human interference with the climate system is occurring. Climate change poses risks for human and natural systems. The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential benefits are shifting due to climate change and how risks can be reduced through mitigation and adaptation. It recognizes that risks of climate change will vary across regions and populations, through space and time, dependent on myriad factors including the extent of mitigation and adaptation

First Measurement of Z/gamma* Production in Compton Scattering of Quasi-real Photons

We report the first observation of Z/gamma* production in Compton scattering of quasi-real photons. This is a subprocess of the reaction e+e- to e+e-Z/gamma*, where one of the final state electrons is undetected. Approximately 55 pb-1 of data collected in the year 1997 at an e+e- centre-of-mass energy of 183 GeV with the OPAL detector at LEP have been analysed. The Z/gamma* from Compton scattering has been detected in the hadronic decay channel. Within well defined kinematic bounds, we measure the product of cross-section and Z/gamma* branching ratio to hadrons to be (0.9+-0.3+-0.1) pb for events with a hadronic mass larger than 60 GeV, dominated by (e)eZ production. In the hadronic mass region between 5 GeV and 60 GeV, dominated by (e)egamma* production, this product is found to be (4.1+-1.6+-0.6) pb. Our results agree with the predictions of two Monte Carlo event generators, grc4f and PYTHIA.Comment: 18 pages, LaTeX, 5 eps figures included, submitted to Physics Letters

Search for Higgs Bosons in e+e- Collisions at 183 GeV

The data collected by the OPAL experiment at sqrts=183 GeV were used to search for Higgs bosons which are predicted by the Standard Model and various extensions, such as general models with two Higgs field doublets and the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of approximately 54pb-1. None of the searches for neutral and charged Higgs bosons have revealed an excess of events beyond the expected background. This negative outcome, in combination with similar results from searches at lower energies, leads to new limits for the Higgs boson masses and other model parameters. In particular, the 95% confidence level lower limit for the mass of the Standard Model Higgs boson is 88.3 GeV. Charged Higgs bosons can be excluded for masses up to 59.5 GeV. In the MSSM, mh > 70.5 GeV and mA > 72.0 GeV are obtained for tan{beta}>1, no and maximal scalar top mixing and soft SUSY-breaking masses of 1 TeV. The range 0.8 < tanb < 1.9 is excluded for minimal scalar top mixing and m{top} < 175 GeV. More general scans of the MSSM parameter space are also considered.Comment: 49 pages. LaTeX, including 33 eps figures, submitted to European Physical Journal

A Measurement of the Product Branching Ratio f(b->Lambda_b).BR(Lambda_b->Lambda X) in Z0 Decays

The product branching ratio, f(b->Lambda_b).BR(Lambda_b->Lambda X), where Lambda_b denotes any weakly-decaying b-baryon, has been measured using the OPAL detector at LEP. Lambda_b are selected by the presence of energetic Lambda particles in bottom events tagged by the presence of displaced secondary vertices. A fit to the momenta of the Lambda particles separates signal from B meson and fragmentation backgrounds. The measured product branching ratio is f(b->Lambda_b).BR(Lambda_b->Lambda X) = (2.67+-0.38(stat)+0.67-0.60(sys))% Combined with a previous OPAL measurement, one obtains f(b->Lambda_b).BR(Lambda_b->Lambda X) = (3.50+-0.32(stat)+-0.35(sys))%.Comment: 16 pages, LaTeX, 3 eps figs included, submitted to the European Physical Journal

Measurement of the Michel Parameters in Leptonic Tau Decays

The Michel parameters of the leptonic tau decays are measured using the OPAL detector at LEP. The Michel parameters are extracted from the energy spectra of the charged decay leptons and from their energy-energy correlations. A new method involving a global likelihood fit of Monte Carlo generated events with complete detector simulation and background treatment has been applied to the data recorded at center-of-mass energies close to sqrt(s) = M(Z) corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 155 pb-1 during the years 1990 to 1995. If e-mu universality is assumed and inferring the tau polarization from neutral current data, the measured Michel parameters are extracted. Limits on non-standard coupling constants and on the masses of new gauge bosons are obtained. The results are in agreement with the V-A prediction of the Standard Model.Comment: 32 pages, LaTeX, 9 eps figures included, submitted to the European Physical Journal